Group previews for 2012 Euros
A player and team to watch for every group, along with simulations
By Albert Larcada | ESPN Insider
With the world's most competitive international tournament set to begin Friday, let's take a loop around the field to look at teams to watch, players you can't miss and Soccer Power Index projections for the most likely teams to advance that you won't want to ignore.
We'll start with Group A and work our way down.
Group A
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Group A Projections
According to ESPN SPI simulations
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>Pct to Advance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Russia</td><td>58.7%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Poland</td><td>58.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Czech Republic</td><td>53.1%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Greece</td><td>30.3%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 1 -->In what is by far the weakest group, the four countries in Group A were all counting their blessings in December when they avoided facing any semblance of a tournament favorite. Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic are all very tight for the two spots in the quarterfinals, with Greece the least likely to continue on.
Team to watch: Russia?
Did I mention this is a weak group? The winner and runner-up from this group will play the runner-up and winner from Group B, respectively, and both teams advancing from Group A will almost surely be heavy underdogs. However, if there is any team from this group that could make a surprise semifinal run, it's Russia. The Russians completed 29 of their 53 attempted through balls in qualifying, the highest percentage among the finalists. While they may get through the group purely on talent, they will need this creative passing to get by a likely matchup with Germany, Portugal or the Netherlands.
Player to watch: Tomas Rosicky (CZE)
<offer>The Czechs will be relying heavily on Rosicky, their Arsenal playmaker. Rosicky completed 268 passes into the final third of the field, 33 more than any other player in qualifying; only one other Czech player had more than 100. He also completed 46 passes into the penalty area, 18 more than the next-highest Czech and 35 more than the next-highest after that. He was their lone engine in qualifying, but he will need even more horsepower if the Czechs are to make a run.
Group B
<!-- begin inline 2 -->Group B Projections
According to ESPN SPI simulations
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>Pct to Advance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Germany</td><td>74.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Netherlands</td><td>57.2%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Portugal</td><td>56.3%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Denmark</td><td>12.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 2 -->The "Group of Death" features three of the four highest-ranked teams in Europe. In Group A, Denmark would have been the second favorite to advance. In Group B it advances in only one out of eight simulations.
Team to watch: Germany
The Germans cruised through qualifying with a plus-27 goal differential in 10 matches. They created 160 scoring chances, more than any other team. They scored six fast-break goals, three more than any other squad. Defender Philipp Lahm completed more passes than any other player. Even goalkeeper Manuel Neuer was active, coming off his line to clear 14 balls -- more than any other keeper among the finalists. But the surest way to know Germany is in form is if poacher extraordinaire Mario Gomez continues to get point-blank looks. His average shot in qualifying came from 9.0 yards away, the closest among the 59 players with at least 20 shot attempts.
Player to watch: Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (NED)
He isn't the best-known Dutch player in the world, but he may be their most dangerous. Huntelaar led Euro qualifying with 12 goals in just eight matches. He scored eight with his right foot and three with his head, both tournament highs.
His scoring wasn't unique to Euro qualifiers, either. He led the Bundesliga this season with 29 goals on just 97 shots. That was 11 more goals than any other Bundesliga player who took fewer than 100 shots.
Huntelaar has an uncanny ability to get his shots on target. On average, a striker in a major European league gets his shot on target about 38 percent of the time. This season, 55 percent of Huntelaar's shots were on goal, putting him in the 99th percentile of all players from major European leagues. In Euro qualifying he was even better, managing to get 67 percent of his shots on goal.
Given the service he will receive from maestros Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben, expect Huntelaar to continue to get shots on the goal and shots in the goal.
Group C
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Group C Projections
According to ESPN SPI simulations
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>Pct to Advance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Spain</td><td>89.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Croatia</td><td>47.6%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Italy</td><td>39.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ireland</td><td>24.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 3 -->By the FIFA rankings it would appear Spain has some strong competition in Croatia (eighth), Italy (12th) and Ireland (18th), but SPI doesn't agree. All three challengers are ranked lower in SPI than in FIFA, meaning their future success isn't as bright as the accomplishment-based FIFA rankings would lead you to believe. In 10,000 simulations of the group stage, Spain has a better chance to advance to the knockout round than any other country.
Team to watch: Croatia
In Euro 2008, Croatia went 3-0-0 in the group stage with wins against Germany and host Austria, only to crash out on penalty kicks to Turkey in the quarterfinals. Overall, in its three Euro appearances Croatia has reached the knockout round twice, losing just three of its 11 matches in full time.
This campaign, Croatia will field a very similar squad to its undefeated 2008 group, with the one obvious addition of Nikica Jelavic.
Player to watch: Nikica Jelavic (CRO)
If there is one under-the-radar player who is poised to break out in this tournament, it's Jelavic. He was introduced in Everton's lineup for the first time Feb. 4, didn't play again until March 3, and didn't stop scoring after that. He ended the Premier League season on a tear, scoring a league-high seven goals in the last five weeks of the season. The only person in Europe's top five domestic leagues to score more goals per match in that stretch was Lionel Messi.
A look at all of Jelavic's shots since April 7 shows that he nearly scored as many goals (seven) as he had shots off target (eight).
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While Jelavic didn't score for Croatia in Euro qualifying, all of those matches were before his stint at Everton. Jelavic has an imaginative midfielder in Luka Modric who should help continue his goal-scoring form.
Group D
<!-- begin inline 4 -->Group D Projections
According to ESPN SPI simulations
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>Pct to Advance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>England</td><td>71.6%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Sweden</td><td>44.5%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ukraine</td><td>42.7%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>France</td><td>41.2%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 4 -->The home-pitch advantage for Ukraine gives them an almost identical chance as Sweden and France to advance out of the group stage. Overall, this might be the most exciting group come the final match day of the group stage, as England will have to play France and Sweden in its first two matches without forward Wayne Rooney. It's a very likely scenario that the Three Lions will need to win the final match against Ukraine to advance. SPI sees them doing just that.
Here is a little-known fact about the current English setup: They are a left-side-dominant squad. Look at the heat map that shows where all of England's passes came from in Euro qualifying matches.
Excluding goalkeeper touches, 41 percent of England's touches came from the left third of the field. Not surprisingly, left back Ashley Cole was at the heart of this attack, completing 103 more passes than any other English player. Cole and Ashley Young, the projected left wing starter for England, connected on 87 passes in qualifying, the most on the team among players who made the final squad.
Without Rooney, England will need its left-side partnership to create as many chances as possible just to stay above water.
Player(s) to watch: Sebastian Larsson and Mikael Lustig (SWE)
Similar to England, Sweden is a wing-dominated team. The Swedes prefer the right side, however, with the Celtic right back Lustig and the Sunderland right wing Larsson leading the way. As you can see on their touches heat maps below, these two like to stay as far to the right as possible -- stretching the defense to cover all 68 meters across the pitch.
This spacing will be crucial for the Swedes, as they are built around the cross. As a team, Sweden completed 78 crosses in qualifying (second most) with a 30.1 percent completion percentage -- the highest in qualifying. Larsson, Lustig and Lyon midfielder Kim Kallstrom did most of the feeding to goal-scoring monster Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the box.
A player and team to watch for every group, along with simulations
By Albert Larcada | ESPN Insider
With the world's most competitive international tournament set to begin Friday, let's take a loop around the field to look at teams to watch, players you can't miss and Soccer Power Index projections for the most likely teams to advance that you won't want to ignore.
We'll start with Group A and work our way down.
Group A
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Group A Projections
According to ESPN SPI simulations
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>Pct to Advance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Russia</td><td>58.7%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Poland</td><td>58.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Czech Republic</td><td>53.1%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Greece</td><td>30.3%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 1 -->In what is by far the weakest group, the four countries in Group A were all counting their blessings in December when they avoided facing any semblance of a tournament favorite. Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic are all very tight for the two spots in the quarterfinals, with Greece the least likely to continue on.
Team to watch: Russia?
Did I mention this is a weak group? The winner and runner-up from this group will play the runner-up and winner from Group B, respectively, and both teams advancing from Group A will almost surely be heavy underdogs. However, if there is any team from this group that could make a surprise semifinal run, it's Russia. The Russians completed 29 of their 53 attempted through balls in qualifying, the highest percentage among the finalists. While they may get through the group purely on talent, they will need this creative passing to get by a likely matchup with Germany, Portugal or the Netherlands.
Player to watch: Tomas Rosicky (CZE)
<offer>The Czechs will be relying heavily on Rosicky, their Arsenal playmaker. Rosicky completed 268 passes into the final third of the field, 33 more than any other player in qualifying; only one other Czech player had more than 100. He also completed 46 passes into the penalty area, 18 more than the next-highest Czech and 35 more than the next-highest after that. He was their lone engine in qualifying, but he will need even more horsepower if the Czechs are to make a run.
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Group B
<!-- begin inline 2 -->Group B Projections
According to ESPN SPI simulations
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>Pct to Advance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Germany</td><td>74.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Netherlands</td><td>57.2%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Portugal</td><td>56.3%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Denmark</td><td>12.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 2 -->The "Group of Death" features three of the four highest-ranked teams in Europe. In Group A, Denmark would have been the second favorite to advance. In Group B it advances in only one out of eight simulations.
Team to watch: Germany
The Germans cruised through qualifying with a plus-27 goal differential in 10 matches. They created 160 scoring chances, more than any other team. They scored six fast-break goals, three more than any other squad. Defender Philipp Lahm completed more passes than any other player. Even goalkeeper Manuel Neuer was active, coming off his line to clear 14 balls -- more than any other keeper among the finalists. But the surest way to know Germany is in form is if poacher extraordinaire Mario Gomez continues to get point-blank looks. His average shot in qualifying came from 9.0 yards away, the closest among the 59 players with at least 20 shot attempts.
Player to watch: Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (NED)
He isn't the best-known Dutch player in the world, but he may be their most dangerous. Huntelaar led Euro qualifying with 12 goals in just eight matches. He scored eight with his right foot and three with his head, both tournament highs.
His scoring wasn't unique to Euro qualifiers, either. He led the Bundesliga this season with 29 goals on just 97 shots. That was 11 more goals than any other Bundesliga player who took fewer than 100 shots.
Huntelaar has an uncanny ability to get his shots on target. On average, a striker in a major European league gets his shot on target about 38 percent of the time. This season, 55 percent of Huntelaar's shots were on goal, putting him in the 99th percentile of all players from major European leagues. In Euro qualifying he was even better, managing to get 67 percent of his shots on goal.
Given the service he will receive from maestros Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben, expect Huntelaar to continue to get shots on the goal and shots in the goal.
Group C
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Group C Projections
According to ESPN SPI simulations
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>Pct to Advance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Spain</td><td>89.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Croatia</td><td>47.6%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Italy</td><td>39.0%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ireland</td><td>24.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 3 -->By the FIFA rankings it would appear Spain has some strong competition in Croatia (eighth), Italy (12th) and Ireland (18th), but SPI doesn't agree. All three challengers are ranked lower in SPI than in FIFA, meaning their future success isn't as bright as the accomplishment-based FIFA rankings would lead you to believe. In 10,000 simulations of the group stage, Spain has a better chance to advance to the knockout round than any other country.
Team to watch: Croatia
In Euro 2008, Croatia went 3-0-0 in the group stage with wins against Germany and host Austria, only to crash out on penalty kicks to Turkey in the quarterfinals. Overall, in its three Euro appearances Croatia has reached the knockout round twice, losing just three of its 11 matches in full time.
This campaign, Croatia will field a very similar squad to its undefeated 2008 group, with the one obvious addition of Nikica Jelavic.
Player to watch: Nikica Jelavic (CRO)
If there is one under-the-radar player who is poised to break out in this tournament, it's Jelavic. He was introduced in Everton's lineup for the first time Feb. 4, didn't play again until March 3, and didn't stop scoring after that. He ended the Premier League season on a tear, scoring a league-high seven goals in the last five weeks of the season. The only person in Europe's top five domestic leagues to score more goals per match in that stretch was Lionel Messi.
A look at all of Jelavic's shots since April 7 shows that he nearly scored as many goals (seven) as he had shots off target (eight).
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While Jelavic didn't score for Croatia in Euro qualifying, all of those matches were before his stint at Everton. Jelavic has an imaginative midfielder in Luka Modric who should help continue his goal-scoring form.
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Group D
<!-- begin inline 4 -->Group D Projections
According to ESPN SPI simulations
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>Pct to Advance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>England</td><td>71.6%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Sweden</td><td>44.5%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ukraine</td><td>42.7%</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>France</td><td>41.2%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 4 -->The home-pitch advantage for Ukraine gives them an almost identical chance as Sweden and France to advance out of the group stage. Overall, this might be the most exciting group come the final match day of the group stage, as England will have to play France and Sweden in its first two matches without forward Wayne Rooney. It's a very likely scenario that the Three Lions will need to win the final match against Ukraine to advance. SPI sees them doing just that.
Here is a little-known fact about the current English setup: They are a left-side-dominant squad. Look at the heat map that shows where all of England's passes came from in Euro qualifying matches.
Excluding goalkeeper touches, 41 percent of England's touches came from the left third of the field. Not surprisingly, left back Ashley Cole was at the heart of this attack, completing 103 more passes than any other English player. Cole and Ashley Young, the projected left wing starter for England, connected on 87 passes in qualifying, the most on the team among players who made the final squad.
Without Rooney, England will need its left-side partnership to create as many chances as possible just to stay above water.
Player(s) to watch: Sebastian Larsson and Mikael Lustig (SWE)
Similar to England, Sweden is a wing-dominated team. The Swedes prefer the right side, however, with the Celtic right back Lustig and the Sunderland right wing Larsson leading the way. As you can see on their touches heat maps below, these two like to stay as far to the right as possible -- stretching the defense to cover all 68 meters across the pitch.
This spacing will be crucial for the Swedes, as they are built around the cross. As a team, Sweden completed 78 crosses in qualifying (second most) with a 30.1 percent completion percentage -- the highest in qualifying. Larsson, Lustig and Lyon midfielder Kim Kallstrom did most of the feeding to goal-scoring monster Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the box.
